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British Journal of Criminology Advance Access published online on May 8, 2008
British Journal of Criminology, doi:10.1093/bjc/azn028
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The British Journal of Criminology 0:azn028 (2008)
© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies (ISTD). All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

DOES SERIOUS OFFENDING LEAD TO HOMICIDE?

Exploring the Interrelationships and Sequencing of Serious Crime

Keith Soothill, Brian Francis* and Jiayi Liu

* Centre for Applied Statistics, Fylde College Lancaster University Lancaster LA1 4YF UK. B.Francis{at}Lancaster.ac.uk.


  Abstract

The interrelationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n = 45,915), blackmail (n = 5,774), kidnapping (n = 7,291) and threats to kill (n = 9,816) in England and Wales (1979–2001), we examine the specialization and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8 per cent) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0 per cent). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction. Additionally, there is evidence of specialization (particularly for arsonists) among serious offenders who recidivate.


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