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British Journal of Criminology Advance Access published online on November 18, 2009

British Journal of Criminology, doi:10.1093/bjc/azp076
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The British Journal of Criminology 0:azp076 (2009)
© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies (ISTD). All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Exploring Paradigms of Crime Reduction

An Empirical Longitudinal Study

Keith Soothill, Mogens N. Christoffersen, M. Azhar Hussain and Brian Francis*

* Professor Brian Francis, Centre for Applied Statistics, Fylde College, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YF, UK; B.Francis{at}Lancaster.ac.uk.


   Abstract

Using Danish registers for a 1980 birth cohort of 29,944 males with parental information and following up these cases for 25 years, the study considers four paradigms of crime reduction (parental child rearing, structural factors around adolescence, locality and individual resources). Focusing on offenders with first-time convictions for shoplifting (n = 1,989), for burglary (n = 1,324) and for violence (n = 1,901), all four paradigms made a contribution to risk of first-time offending for all three crimes. The counter-factual analysis indicated that a focus on structural issues within a society may have more widespread benefits, but the assumed causal links need to be further explored. The use of population registers, under controlled conditions, provides an important window on criminal careers.

Key Words: theory testing • crime recruitment • risk of first offending • parental factors • locality


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