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British Journal of Criminology Advance Access originally published online on October 17, 2005
British Journal of Criminology 2006 46(3):505-518; doi:10.1093/bjc/azi092
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The British Journal of Criminology 46:505-518 (2006)
© The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies (ISTD). All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

People’s Perceptions of their Likely Future Risk of Criminal Victimization

Jason Ditton and Derek Chadee*

* Jason Ditton is at the Department of Law, University of Sheffield, England; and the Scottish Centre for Criminology, Glasgow, UK; jasonditton{at}lineone.net Derek Chadee is Director of the ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre and at the Department of Behavioural Sciences, University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Trinidad; dchadee{at}fss.uwi.tt.

Crime surveys typically ask respondents how likely they think it is that they will be a crime victim in the year after questioning. A three-wave longitudinal panel survey conducted in Trinidad was no exception. This design permits an examination of both the degree to which predictions are based on past experience and of the accuracy or otherwise of such predictions when compared to subsequent events. Analysis revealed that respondents typically do not base predictions on experience, are typically pessimistic and that this is not warranted by their subsequent experience. It is cautiously suggested that rather than be involved in probabilistic mathematical calculations, respondents are more likely to consult lay heuristics which may be utterly fallacious from the perspective of probability theory, but convenient and available, if rather gloomy, nevertheless.


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